WRT (With Respect To) Technology

As I prepare to attend the CTIA Wireless 2010 show in Las Vegas this week, I am reflecting on how interesting the conference should be with the perennial absence of Apple and the imminent market introduction of the Apple iPad. When I attended and analyzed CTIA 2008, the mobile industry was scrambling to react at all levels to the market introduction and success of the Apple iPhone.

In 2010, it is clear that Apple has strongly influenced mobile industry structure, as well as consumers’ expectations of a mobile device and the ecosystem that surrounds it including service providers, handset designers, applications developers, content providers, accessory makers, and more.  As I pointed out in an earlier article, in my view an essential element that makes the iPad different in an important way is that the iPad is the first widely available platform that will give users and developers the opportunity to explore large-size, multi-touch applications.  This device characteristic combined with Apple’s appeal to the mass market, and the built-in user base and developer community created with the iPhone, have enabled Apple, its customers, and developers to invent the future of user interfaces.  Thus I found an article from the March 21 New York Times revealing and supporting my position.  Neil Young co-founder and head of the iPhone gaming studio Ngmoco, said his company was updating several games to accommodate the iPad, including a multiplayer game called Charadium where players draw items and take turns guessing what the picture is.  The game will get new controls and a roomier blank pad to draw on.

“There are so many more places to touch on the screen,” he said. “We can have a lot more fun with it.” ”

Naturally, since the ever green/very durable Mr. Young is one of my all time favorite musicians, song writers, entrepreneurs, I am happy to see that I am in good company with my views of the iPad.

With “so many more places to touch” the iPad will present us all with an opportunity to test our ideas and see where they lead.

The solid state lighting (SSL) market is entering a volatile stage as light emitting diode (LED) applications expand and market synergies emerge.   Several recent reports have highlighted the exploding market opportunities and obstacles for the LED industry including LED manufacturers, materials and equipment suppliers, and manufacturers that use LEDs in their products.

For example, DisplaySearch has reported that LED backlight costs for liquid crystal display (LCD) TVs are falling rapidly and they forecast that a white edge-lit LED backlight unit (BLU) for a 40 inch diagonal television currently costs about $120 and will approach $50 by the end of 2013 as shown below.

At the same time, some observers are predicting a potential LED shortage as LED manufacturers operate at very high utilization levels.  For example, Jagdish Rebello senior director and principal analyst for wireless research at iSuppli recently stated: “It is clear that demand is outstripping supply.  With LED market growth forecasted to rise by double-digit percentages for at least the next three years—including 2010—a drastic undersupply situation could occur this year unless additional capacity is brought online to meet the increased demand.”  iSuppli goes on to point out that LED solutions are finding increasing usage in the general illumination market, addressing the needs of residential, commercial and industrial lighting applications. The general illumination market for LEDs is still in its infancy, but will become mainstream during the next two years.

As we consider these press reports and analyze the effects of market expansion on the building LED and solid state lighting industries we extract several important insights.

First, manufacturers of LED materials, equipment, chips and lamps will respond to higher market demand.  LED backlights in LCD televisions and monitors can provide higher display performance with local area dimming, and yield considerably lower power consumption and mercury free sets.  Investment in efficient solid state lighting will be driven by several factors in addition to better displays, including the phase out of inefficient incandescent lighting and moves to eliminate mercury in lighting products.  These green factors help make solid state lighting one of the few bright spots in the current slow world economy.

Finally, the wider use of LEDs in both displays and general lighting is resulting in important synergies and market opportunities.  A very interesting trend is the synergy developing between LED display backlights and SSL luminaire design.  Lighting designers have begun to realize that thin edge-lit LED panels similar in configuration to display backlights are also attractive for general illumination use in the drop ceiling grid lighting typically seen in commercial and industrial installations.

The rapid price decline in white LED edge-lit backlight panels forecast by DisplaySearch will make similar (though not identical) panels attractive for ceiling lighting applications.  A few companies including Lunera and Go Lighting Technologies are now offering (see Lunera offering below) thin edge-lit LED panels in sizes including 2×2 and 2×4 feet sizes to replace conventional fluorescent tube troffers.

As drop ceiling LED luminaires fall in price and increase in efficiency, they will likely be widely sold as long-lived cost effective replacements.  The diffuse extended-area light characteristics of edge-lit LED panels will offer the advantages that have been closely identified with the emerging Organic LED (OLED) lighting technology.  The OLED industry will be closely watching the success of diffuse LED lighting since the availability of cost effective LED edge-lit panels with diffuse area light source characteristics will likely put a ceiling on the price of similar form factor OLED luminaires.  This situation will put added price pressure on OLED lighting designers and may force OLED lighting development to focus on other OLED product attributes including extreme thinness and flexibility.  No matter the choice of lamp technology, lighting consumers will benefit from less polluting more efficient lighting in future.