Bring Down the Wall (Part 4)

November 13, 2007 — Phillip Wright

Now that we know the “Googlephone” is not a phone but rather a new phone operating system called Android, we can begin to forecast how the smart phone market will evolve. As with much in evolution a good deal of time will be involved. But first take the time to look over the videos (a total of 7 videos) posted by Google that describe, promote and generally talk up Google’s approach to penetrating the smartphone operating system space.

Android will have to find a place among the established smart phone operating systems that include Symbian, Palm, Blackberry, Windows Mobile, and of course the iPhone. Now that Apple have announced that they will deliver a system development kit (SDK) for the iPhone in February 2008, developers are looking forward to offering applications for a hardware platform with great appeal. The iPhone hardware combines many of the elements needed for a widely popular gadget ecosystem including a large high resolution display and an appealing human interface design. By introducing the iPod Touch media player, Apple has already extended the iPhone franchise to a second product category.The market roles of the incumbent smart phone operating systems (Symbian, Palm, Blackberry, Windows Mobile) are fairly well understood at present and all appear to be upstaged by the iPhone. By entering a relatively crowded market, Android will have acceptance challenges. First, Android will have to gain adequate momentum so that it is not simply one more OS for application developers to write to. Second, compelling hardware platforms must be developed to utilize Android and enable compelling features for consumers and solid value propositions for service providers. As I noted, evolution is slow, but inevitable. The evolution of smart phone operating systems is ongoing and we should see new species emerge by mid 2008.

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A Bright Future for Solid State Lighting

November 6, 2007 — Phillip Wright

After noting OIDA’s forecast for rapid market growth for solid state lighting, I could not help noticing several recent reports of venture capital investments in the solid state lighting arena. Dealbook and Greentech Media both report on investment in LED Lighting Fixtures by Digital Power Capital. Moreover, Forbes have reported on investments in Ottawa-based Group IV Semiconductor by the Business Development Bank of Canada, Vinod Khosla’s new venture capital firm, Khosla Ventures, and most recently Montreal-based Garage Technology Ventures and Applied Materials subsidiary Applied Ventures LLC.

Solid state lighting (SSL) is just beginning to impact the market, and new SSL developments including organic LED and silicon-based light emitting schemes are being proposed for general illumination. Investors are continuing to turn to the emerging solid state lighting area for investment opportunities. Expect the pace of these investments to ramp up and the number of new opportunities to swell as investors seek high growth prospects.

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OIDA Market Forecast for Solid State Lighting

November 2, 2007 — Phillip Wright

In a recent webinar, the Optoelectronics Industry Development Association (OIDA) have forecast that Solid State Lighting will exceed 15% of all lighting revenues in 5 years and exceed 25% by 2015. During this same period, fluorescent lighting will tend to saturate at about 40% of all lighting revenues, while incandescent lighting will decline to about 30% share in 2015 as shown below.

OIDA Solid State Lighting Forecast

Solid State Lighting includes High Brightness Light Emitting Diode (HBLED) light sources used today primarily in flashlights, holiday lights, mobile phone keypad illumination and camera flash, in liquid crystal display backlights, and in automotive taillight and soon headlight applications. A newer form of Solid State Lighting, the Organic Light Emitting Diode (OLED) is forecast to begin replacing fluorescent lighting in some applications later in the forecast period. The advantages of Solid State Lighting are lower power consumption, and longer lifetime.

The key factors driving more widespread deployment of Solid State Lighting are energy costs, the cost of the new LED technologies, and technical progress on improving LED performance still further. We forecast continuing improvement in both HBLED and OLED performance and cost combined with ongoing increases in the cost of energy. The collision of higher energy cost with improved LED performance and cost should result in a perfect storm of investment in and acceptance of a new lighting technology.

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Update to “Bring Down the Wall”

November 1, 2007 — Phillip Wright

Locked Mobile Phone

The New York Times has a good article today summarizing the state of industry policies and market practices regarding “locked” and “unlocked” mobile phones. As we have discussed here, we feel that the mobile wireless device industry approach to the walled garden practice favored by some device manufacturers and many mobile service providers will come under increasing scrutiny from many angles. Consumers and regulatory bodies worldwide are increasingly seeking more open access to wireless devices and applications. When NOKIA, the world’s largest maker of mobile phones, runs ads stating “Open to Anything” and “Unlock your potential,” it’s clear that a good portion of the global device manufacturing industry are willing and able to provide more open access to devices. The service providers however take a range of positions regarding “unlocked” devices as detailed in the Times article. Although service provider policies are evolving, a limited range of options are available in many service regions worldwide, and movement to more open devices and networks will continue to be slow. Nevertheless, for those consumers and businesses that would like to see more openness and competition in the wireless market place, progress is being made. Moreover, I expect that progress will accelerate and new opportunities be created as consumers and businesses vote with their feet and their wireless service contracts by moving to service providers with more open market practices.

Posted in Mobile Phones, Wireless Networking. 1 Comment »