8. May 2009 by Phillip Wright.

On May 5, 2009 my local NBC-TV affiliate ran a story on their website about 18-year-old Crystal Wiski in Northern California who recently sent and received 303,398 text messages in one month (see video below).  Crystal’s astounding accomplishment made my family discussions about cell phone usage seem like small potatoes.  However, what caught my attention about Crystal’s story was the fact that she achieved this milestone using an Apple iPhone.  After having seen the damage wrecked by her fingernail typing on my daughter’s sturdy Motorola non-touchsreen phone, I am thoroughly impressed not only with Crystal’s typing speed, but with the durability of the iPhone touchscreen.  When the iPhone launched, many said that the touchscreen virtual QWERTY keyboard of the iPhone would prove to be a major liability when compared to the hardware keyboard of the Blackberry and similar devices.  As with so much conventional wisdom, Crystal has shown that users will adapt and achieve high levels of performance and satisfaction from user interface devices that are well designed and just work.  Clearly Apple needs to consider hiring Crystal as a product tester to carry out accelerated life testing of their touchscreen products.  I can even see Crystal appearing in television ads pitting her against a Blackberry user in a “Mac vs. PC guy”-style ad campaign.

As the battle for cell phone mind and market share continues, we will see more users like Crystal emerge to probe the limits of what’s possible and what’s popular in mobile devices.

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7. April 2009 by Phillip Wright.

As reported in Laser Focus World, a new study has concluded that laser light reduced overall cholesterol count by 16 points in 75 percent of participants in a study originally designed to investigate how dissolved fat affects body chemistry.  Ryan Maloney, medical director of Erchonia Medical Inc. (McKinney, TX) is reporting the results at this week’s Annual Conference of the American Society for Laser Medicine and Surgery (ASLMS) in National Harbor, MD.

This recent report highlights the increasing role that optoelectronics plays in improving human health, one of the five key metrics we identified in our recent Green Photonics Report for OIDA.  Erchonia researches, has developed, and markets their Low Level Laser Therapy (3LT™) systems for a variety of health related applications including neck and shoulder pain, burn, wound and bone healing, as well as cosmetic applications.  Two examples of their laser equipment products are shown below.

These medical devices incorporate diode lasers operating at wavelengths of 405 nm and/or 635 nm at output powers in the 5-10 mW range to treat conditions including acne and chronic pain, and for laser assisted liposuction.  Diode lasers are being increasingly applied in a wide range of applications encompassing medical devices, materials processing, Blu-Ray video players, and are proposed for use in vastly larger equipment including the Laser Inertial-Confinement Fusion-Fission Energy (LIFE) system proposed by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory.  Diode lasers are on their way to becoming a building block of our civilization as basic and widespread as the transistor.  From providing healthcare solutions, to contributing to a future cleaner energy source, diode lasers will continue to drive Green Photonic solutions throughout the 21st century.

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28. February 2009 by Phillip Wright.

WRT Associates, LLC and the Washington, DC-based OIDA (Optoelectronics Industry Development Association) have compiled and released new global optoelectronics market data for components and the green photonics share of the market. WRT and OIDA estimate that the global optoelectronics market for 2008 was $356 billion, with the green photonics share of that market 8.1% or $28.9 billion.

While the 2009-2020 CAGR for global optoelectronics is forecast to be 3.1%, the green photonics share is forecast to be a very encouraging 19.6%. These growth rates translate into $493 billion in revenue for optoelectronic components by 2020, of which $261 billion or 53% is the green photonics market share. Near term, the overall global optoelectronics market is forecast to decline by 1.4% in 2009, while the green photonics market is expected to grow 26.5%.

To forecast the evolving green photonics market, Dr. Phillip Wright, chief analyst for OIDA’s green photonics report and Managing Director of WRT Associates, and OIDA employed five key metrics. The contribution of photonics is considered “green” if it:

•     generates or conserves energy
•     reduces greenhouse gas emissions
•     reduces pollution
•     yields an environmentally sustainable outcome, or
•     improves public health

OIDA’s president Dr. Michael Lebby has followed this emerging market segment for several years as part of OIDA’s green photonics initiative. According to Dr. Lebby, “The growth of the green photonics market is significant for the economy and shows that, even in this tough economic climate, energy conservation, greenhouse gas emissions, pollution, sustainable outcomes, and improved human health are all critical in the marketplace that is leveraged through optoelectronics.” Lebby adds, “It’s exciting to see such strong growth predicted in the green photonics sectors of optoelectronics over the next decade in areas such as photovoltaic solar cells, solid state lighting, and optical communications. We believe that the positive affect of the green photonics movement in coming years will help stimulate interest for companies to design and manufacture optoelectronics in the U.S.”

To further drive their green agenda, OIDA have organized the upcoming OPTOmism Executive Forum and Conference. OPTOmism: Powering the Green Revolution through Photonics conference will be held in Santa Clara, California, May 18-20th, 2009 (www.optomism.com). An outstanding program of invited speakers and peer-reviewed technical presentations will review critical aspects of the green photonics market. Speakers include Nobel laureate and U.S. Energy Secretary, Dr. Steven Chu. Over the three days, OPTOmism will explore energy related optoelectronics, photonics, optics, and physics based solutions across a broad applications portfolio. Speakers and delegates will debate solar, lighting, clean coal, biomass, oil and gas, communications, displays, and sensing and spectroscopy, among many other issues.

Posted in Solid State Lighting, Green Technology, Optoelectronics, Investment, Renewable Energy, Photovoltaics, Announcements | Print | No Comments »

9. February 2009 by Phillip Wright.

After attending the 2009 Flexible Electronics & Displays Conference last week and seeing today’s press on the Amazon Kindle 2 (photos below), I have to ask whether e-readers are finally on their way to becoming ubiquitous.  The original Kindle sold out and received a great deal of positive press.

A key reason for the success of the Kindle is the inclusion of a wireless means to purchase publications without incurring a monthly wireless data charge.  By bundling the means to wirelessly download publications using the Sprint nationwide wireless network, Amazon has made it transparent and cost effective for readers to browse and purchase publications.

As e-readers improve in design, performance and cost, they have the potential to bring many benefits to consumers, businesses, and the environment.  Consumers appreciate having a slick handheld e-reader that offers many of the same reading characteristics of printed paper books and documents while providing a means to carry and store many publications in a single device.  Students look forward to the day when they can obtain text books in electronic form that are more affordable for use on e-readers that are also affordable and offer lightweight portability.  Throughout the print industry, newspapers and magazines are finding it increasingly difficult to compete with electronic media owing to the high cost of newsprint, print production and distribution.  The print industry has responded by cutting back on the number of printed pages that they distribute and turning in part to electronic distribution on the web.  A key problem going forward is for publishers to reestablish a viable business model.  As e-readers come into wider use, the current print industry has the opportunity to migrate to internet distribution of their content as Amazon’s deals with publishers have shown.

Also important will be the availability of more capable e-readers.  Plastic Logic is developing an e-reader with a 10.7 inch diagonal display.  This week Plastic Logic will announce its prototype e-Reader (photos below) and partnership deals with a number of publishing partners.

A key feature common to many e-reader products is the electrophoretic, or electronic paper, display technology.  Electrophoretic displays made on flexible plastic sheets offer black and white display attributes similar to paper, consume very little electrical power, and are rugged by virtue of their flexible substrate construction.  Although e-readers using electrophoretic displays such as the E-Ink display material of the Kindle, Plastic Logic, and Sony e-readers have been under development for more than 10 years, the evolution and convergence of market factors, the internet, and the need for greener publishing methods are driving the development and adoption of a new class of mobile device.

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28. January 2009 by Phillip Wright.

Two new features will soon be coming to mobile phones and portable media players.  These features are active matrix organic light emitting diode (AMOLED) displays and projection displays (picoprojectors).  In fact, the soon to be released Samsung Show phone (see photos below) features both touch screen AMOLED and projection displays in a package only slightly thicker than the Apple iPhone.

Popular Science has posted a comprehensive video illustrating the features and operation of the Samsung Show.

Sony has also announced their Walkman NWZ-X1000 portable media player with a touch screen AMOLED display.

As AMOLED manufacturing technology matures, AMOLEDs will find increasing application in mobile device applications.  The increasing penetration of AMOLED displays in the mobile device segment will occur because of their excellent display attributes and reduced power consumption.  Moreover, in the lucrative and hotly contested mobile device market, the superior display attributes of AMOLED displays compared to LCDs make AMOLED displays a market differentiating feature.  Although television applications of AMOLED displays garner a great deal of attention, small and medium size applications of AMOLEDs will dominate for the next several years as manufacturers work diligently to increase manufacturing yields and reduce costs of AMOLEDs.In contrast, the application of picoprojectors in mobile devices opens up entirely new applications for sharing pictures, videos and presentations.  As the photo below of the Samsung Show illustrates, mobile devices with solid communication features will become a pervasive means to carry and share our content.

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5. January 2009 by Phillip Wright.

Just as we look forward to the 2009 edition of the Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas, the Natural Resources Defense Council reports that lower power televisions are on the way to market.  In an update to an earlier report on television power consumption, NRDC outlines the roadmap to lower power televisions based on near term improvements in television design and operating modes.  Lower power consumption is forecast for both LCD and plasma display televisions.  NRDC also forecast that dramatic additional savings are obtainable as LCD televisions transition to light emitting diode (LED) backlights, and plasma televisions achieve “luminance efficiency” of 10 lumens/watt.  Interestingly, NRDC emphasizes that reducing television power consumption can also lead to a reduction in manufacturing costs.

NRDC’s 2005 report stated that US televisions consumed 46 billion kilowatt hours, or 4 % of residential electricity use, in 2004.  As shown below, NRDC forecast that electricity consumption of US televisions would climb at least 52% to more than 70 billion kilowatt hours by 2009.  With recent growth in sales of large screen and high definition television sets, it would be interesting if NRDC would update their projected increase in television power consumption, and identify the overall energy savings to be obtained from the near term improvements in television power consumption that they forecast.

Figure 1: Forecast Trend for US Television Power Consumption
Source: Natural Resources Defense Council

An interesting dynamic arises when considering the development and market impact of new display technologies that promise lower power consumption televisions.  For example, Samsung, LG and Sony have launched or demonstrated televisions using Active Matrix Organic Light Emitting Diode (AMOLED) displays that offer outstanding display performance.  However, high manufacturing costs have thus far limited the market introduction of AMOLED televisions.  As manufacturers of LCD and plasma televisions continue to improve the performance and power consumption of their products, the promoters of newer technologies including AMOLEDs will face continued challenges.

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10. April 2008 by Phillip Wright.

Three days spent last week (April 1-3) in Las Vegas at the annual CTIA Wireless show provided a solid glimpse of the ongoing reaction of the wireless industry to the Apple iPhone. Clearly, the iPhone is having an impact on the industry out of proportion to the number of units sold to date. The iPhone was the dominating touchstone in almost every discussion. Apple of course does not even exhibit at CTIA. However, nearly every conversation emphasized the ease of use of the iPhone. The undertone at CTIA this year was not about something you could see or photograph. The whole story this year was about usability and the emerging role of open handsets and open networks. The most frequently named product and the underlying unspoken thought were both iPhone.

Handset manufacturers and service providers are all working to respond to the iPhone. Samsung’s new touch-screen phone, the Instinct (below) captured the “Best in Show” Emerging Technology Award at CTIA Wireless 2008. The Instinct also received the Best Cell Phone distinction in CNET’s Cream of the Crop at the event.

Apple, with the iPhone, has turned existing wireless industry relationships on their head. This is particularly so in the US where the carrier has dictated so much to the consumer and device manufacturer. By offering consumers an attractive handset that sets new standards in usability, appeal, and mobile internet browsing, Apple is pointing the way for handset leadership. Initially, Apple launched the iPhone as a very closed platform to make their point and to gain initial market entree. Apple is now orchestrating a phased rollout of a more open platform with the release of their iPhone software development kit (SDK), upcoming acceptance of 3rd party applications, and a controlled means (iTunes store) of distributing “approved” applications. In this way Apple is masterfully doing what the major carriers have not, and don’t yet know how to do without giving up a great deal of control and risking becoming bit pipes. However, Apple, if they continue to execute to plan, have the opportunity to expand their franchise at a high rate and leave nonresponsive carriers and handset suppliers behind in the mind of consumers. Although Apple is starting from a very small base in mobiles, as their large market share in music players shows, their ability to connect with consumers will provide them with a great opportunity to expand the iPhone franchise and their handset market share.

For additional insight, click Observations from CTIA Wireless 2008 to view a few slides about our findings from CTIA Wireless 2008.

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24. March 2008 by Phillip Wright.

WRT Associates (www.wrtassoc.com) announces the availability of a new report entitled “Wireless Device Applications of Optoelectronics.” This report was authored by Phillip Wright, Ph.D., Chief Analyst and Managing Director at WRT Associates, LLC, and Consultant with the Optoelectronic Industry Development Association (OIDA). The Wireless Optoelectronics report package is being made available through WRT Associates, LLC with the cooperation of OIDA. The table of contents, lists of figures and tables, and an excerpt of the Wireless Optoelectronics report is available here: Excerpt Wireless Device Applications of Optoelectronics

The Wireless Optoelectronics report provides a detailed view and forecast of the role of optoelectronics components and modules in wireless devices including mobile phones that currently sell more than 1 billion units annually. The emergence of wireless connectivity in an increasing range of products including digital cameras, mp3 players, portable games, and more is increasing the market opportunity for optoelectronics in wireless devices. In high end wireless devices such as the Apple iPhone, the optoelectronics content can reach 20-30% of the total bill of materials cost. In many wireless devices, optoelectronics enable key features that are highly valued by consumers including large color displays, high resolution auto focus digital cameras, and colorful surface and keypad illumination. The report includes decadal market forecasts for optoelectronic component and module revenue including high brightness light emitting diodes (HBLEDs), image sensors, and wireless device displays by type. The Wireless Optoelectronics report also highlights new optoelectronic technologies and applications that will drive new features in wireless devices. The market roles of Organic Light Emitting Diodes (OLEDs), flexible displays, 3D displays and micro projectors, and new optoelectronic enabled user interface devices are also covered in the report. The Wireless Optoelectronics report provides a comprehensive overview and forecast of market growth for optoelectronics in wireless devices and provides a timely heads-up on the evolution of new technologies that will drive the market ahead.

WRT Associates are making the Wireless Optoelectronics report available in a package with 2 hours of consultation with the author to discuss the contents of the report and related topics. Consulting conferences can be held by phone or at the customer’s site at added expense. The report will be delivered electronically in PDF file format and is available now for $1,695 by emailing info@wrtassoc.com or by calling +1-970-219-8800.

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20. March 2008 by Phillip Wright.

Luminus Devices, on March 17, announced that they have raised $72 Million in a new round of financing. The Luminus press release states: “The investor syndicate was led by Boston-based Braemar Energy Ventures and included a number of other funds, notably San Francisco-based CMEA Ventures and Washington, D.C.-based Paladin Capital Group, which are similarly focused on energy and environmentally friendly technologies. In addition, all of Luminus’ previous investors participated in the financing.”

Luminus has marketed their PhlatLight^® light emitting diodes (LEDs) primarily as a long-lived replacement for projection display lamps, and as a “greener,” mercury free and more efficient, backlight for liquid crystal displays (LCDs) and televisions. In announcing the recent added investment, Luminus has signaled that they will now also be targeting the general illumination market for efficient solid state lighting.

As we have discussed previously, LEDs for solid state lighting with efficacies greater than current fluorescent lighting are now being reported and will soon reach market. Some solid state lighting startups (e.g. Color Kinetics) have already reached the IPO stage, and some of the large lighting players including Philips have already begun acquiring smaller promising solid state lighting firms (Color Kinetics, Lumileds).

We expect additional startup funding as well as further acquisition activity in the solid state lighting space. The substantial new funding just received by Luminus brings the total VC investment in the company to $139 Million to date and brings attention to the question of a profitable exit strategy. As we watch the development of the solid state lighting industry, we expect to identify several good opportunities for investment as the industry unfolds.

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25. February 2008 by Phillip Wright.

A new forecast presented by the US Department of Energy (DOE) shows that solid state lighting development is progressing even faster than predicted. Review of the 2008 DOE Solid-State Lighting R&D Workshop entitled “Transformations in Lighting” held January 29-31, 2008 in Atlanta, GA reveals an important new trend in solid state lighting development. Fred Welsh speaking at the workshop stated, “LED efficacies far-surpassed our projections.”

We have plotted data from the workshop and show comparisons of DOE forecasts for progress in light emitting diode (LED) solid state lighting (SSL) in Figures 1 and 2 below.

Figure 1: Forecast Trend for Luminous Efficacy of LED SSL Laboratory Results
Source: US DOE

Figure 2: Forecast Trend for Luminous Efficacy of LED SSL Results for Commercial Warm White Lamps
Source: US DOE

Figure 1 and 2 compare DOE’s forecasts for LED SSL performance (luminous efficacy) for both Laboratory (Figure 1) and Commercial Warm White (Figure 2) lamps as of March 2007 and as reported at the Atlanta Workshop in January 2008. Both Figures also show the efficacy range of fluorescent tubes and compact fluorescent lamps. This comparison of SSL performance forecasts made only 11 months apart is striking. Moreover, the more recent forecast reflects a more realistic view of how technologies advance.

The straight line (linear without upper bound) increase in efficacy shown in the March ’07 forecast of Figures 1 and 2 is clearly not realistic but reflects the near linear advance of performance during the early development of a technology. The forecast from January ’08 illustrates that more rapid than previously forecast progress has in fact occurred and is forecast to continue through 2015. The updated forecast more realistically reflects that technology improvements can be rapid in “early days” but will trend asymptotically toward physical limits as the technology matures.

All in all, this is a good news story for the solid state lighting industry. LEDs are improving even more rapidly than some had forecast. No doubt, this rapid progress is due to the R&D support and focus provided by the DOE program, and even more by efforts that businesses have committed to make energy efficient solid state lighting a reality. As strong progress is made on LED lamp improvements, focus is also moving on to include the vitally important issue of the performance of these lamps in actual luminaire applications. Clearly, we are approaching a time when energy saving lighting will be come a reality. As consumers and governments adopt the notion that solid state lighting will lead to both energy conservation and cost reductions, businesses in the SSL industry will see attractive valuations and opportunities.

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